Italy 1 Bulgaria 1 - the perfect result

A draw tonight in Group 8 would be the perfect result for us as it will give us the chance to win the group (by winning our two final home games) or guaranteeing second spot (by beating Montenegro in our final game).

The worst possible result from tonight's game is a Bulgarian win as it creates a very real risk that we could end up third.

If we finish second, it will be down to a two-legged play-off against potentially one of the following:

Group 1 Sweden
Group 2 Greece
Group 3 Czech Republic
Group 4 Russia
Group 5 Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group 6 Ukraine
Group 7 France
Group 9 Scotland

I anticipate Scotland will be the worst second place team and will be eliminated from the play-off draw. Of the balance, the plum draw would be one of Sweden, Greece or Bosnia-Hervegovina. The games will be played on 14th and 18th November.